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Mary Peltola's Chances of Beating Dan Sullivan to Flip Alaska Senate Seat

Mary Peltola's Chances of Beating Dan Sullivan to Flip Alaska Senate Seat

newsweek.com 19.08.2026 10:33 9 views
Democrats believe Peltola can flip Alaska, which backed Trump by double digits in 2024, in the November midterms.

Republican Senator Dan Sullivan and former Representative Mary Peltola, a Democrat, advanced to the general election in Alaska’s Senate race on Tuesday in what is expected to be one of the most competitive elections of the 2026 midterms. Peltola was leading early Wednesday with 47.8 percent of the vote to Sullivan's 43.3 percent, according to the , with just under 80 percent of votes counted. Another Republican called Dan Sullivan (on the ballot as "Daniel J.

Sullivan Jr.") was leading the rest of the crowded field of candidates, with 2.5 percent of the vote. In Alaska, all candidates appear on a single ballot regardless of party, and the four with the most support advance to the general election. The state also uses ranked choice voting in the general election.

In November, voters will rank the four candidates by preference. If no candidate reaches an outright majority, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated, and their voters are redistributed based on their second choice. If no candidate again wins 50 percent plus one, the process repeats between the final two candidates.

Although Alaska has historically leaned toward Republicans, the Senate race has emerged as a top target for Democrats, who believe it could be the tipping-point state that determines which party controls the Senate after the midterms. Democrats view the race as competitive because Republicans have seen narrowing margins in Alaska, and Peltola is a well-known candidate who has recently won statewide. President Donald Trump’s approval rating has also slipped nationwide amid cost-of-living and inflation concerns.

However, Trump still won the state by 13 points in 2024, making it a tough state for any Democrat. The latest poll from Data for Progress pointed to a competitive race between Sullivan, who has represented the state since 2015, and Peltola, who served in the at-large congressional district from 2022 to 2025. In the first round of voting, no candidate received an outright majority, with 47 percent saying they would vote for Peltola compared to 41 percent for Sullivan.

Four percent said they would vote for another man named Dan Sullivan, a former U.S. Forest Service employee who has no relation to the incumbent. His candidacy has sparked outcry from Republicans, including Trump, who called him an “imposter” in a Tuesday post on Truth Social.

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