Despite ongoing risks to maritime transport, crude oil flows from the Middle East have returned to pre-war levels. According to JPMorgan analysts, the Middle East’s major oil export routes are flowing again, although the recovery has been uneven. They described the development as significant given that the region remains affected by conflict.
Crude oil shipments from the region have reached 17.5 million barrels per day, or 98% of pre-war levels, while diesel and gasoline exports have risen to 3 million barrels per day, equivalent to 58% of pre-war levels. Over the past five days, total flows stood at 89% of 2025 levels based on the 10-day average. "Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, led mainly by Saudi Arabia, have returned to around 13 million barrels per day, a level last seen in late June.
However, the increase in shipments should not be interpreted as an improvement in security. Rather, it reflects the sector’s growing ability to operate despite persistent risks," the experts said. Analysts at Goldman Sachs said oil exports from the Gulf, including so-called "dark flows" of oil transported through covert or difficult-to-track shipments, reached 23.3 million barrels per day over the past week, close to the 2025 average.
"Global oil markets have gradually moved toward balance in September. There is a divergence between the decline in Iranian exports and increased exports from other Gulf producers. Saudi Arabia’s exports more than doubled in September, exceeding the 2025 average," the Goldman Sachs analysts said.
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