They will also learn whether to keep believing the two Ps that signal what may happen: the polls and the prediction markets. This time, the two agree: a blue wave is coming. And they are surfing it toward the fate that awaits them on November 3.
The RealClearPolling (RCP) average of polls for the 2026 generic Congressional vote puts Democrats at an 8.2-point lead, 51.4 to the Republicans' 43.2. Nate Silver's polling average puts it at 51.2 to 42.5 in Democrats' favor. Traders on Kalshi give Democrats a 69 percent chance of taking the Senate and 92 percent of a House majority.
Polymarket is similar, with Democrats at 72 percent probability for the Senate and 94 percent the House. This is seen, too, in some of the most closely-watched races. Look at the polling in red Texas, for example, which has Democratic candidate James Talarico leading the GOP's Ken Paxton, a state that may turn blue in the U.S.
Senate for the first time since 1988. Prediction markets make Talarico the clear favorite, saying it is his to lose. All this consensus is the danger.
The two Ps will rise or fall together, because, as several political scientists told Newsweek, the second P is largely a reading of the first. In recent times, both have faltered. These midterms are a stress test of their credibility.
"I tend to look at the variation in the polls. I kind of like variation. If there's too much clustering, I get a little nervous," Christopher Wlezien of the University of Texas at Austin told Newsweek.
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