Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio woke up Wednesday to a political map far less friendly to their 2028 ambitions. Democrats won control of the House and Senate in Tuesday's midterm elections, flipping Senate seats in Texas, North Carolina, South Carolina, Ohio, Kansas and Iowa. In Texas, Democrat James Talarico defeated Republican Ken Paxton, giving Democrats their first statewide win there since 1994.
In Ohio, Vance's home state, Democrat Amy Acton beat Republican Vivek Ramaswamy in the governor's race, while Democrat Sherrod Brown defeated Republican incumbent Jon Husted in the Senate race. While many expected a strong night for Democrats, few expected such a crushing defeat for Republicans. The results left the party searching for answers.
The question now is who will pick up the pieces. Vance and Rubio have emerged as the two leading contenders to take up the MAGA mantle, with President Donald Trump praising them on different occasions. But Tuesday's results raise a big question about what comes next: Will voters stick with a candidate loyal to Trump and his movement, or will the GOP finally move away from Trumpism?
"Remember that are both young," Marc Hetherington, a professor of political science at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, told Newsweek when asked what he would advise the two men. Before Tuesday, Vance held the edge. A New York Times/Siena poll of Republican primary voters conducted October 12-19 found that 33 percent would most likely back Vance in a 2028 primary to 23 percent for Rubio, who has said he will defer to Vance.
About 26 percent said they did not know. Vance went all in for Ramaswamy in his home state, defending his gubernatorial run through its ugliest moments—particularly after Ramaswamy faced a wave of backlash over a campaign ad featuring Acton’s estranged mother disputing her daughter's account of her childhood—but still couldn't get him across the finish line. Rubio, who largely stayed off the campaign trail and has mostly avoided blame for the Iran war, watched his closest rival stumble and blame the party's losses on the conflict.
"If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so," Vance wrote in a social media post on Wednesday. He also pointed to polling of 2024 Trump voters who backed Democrats this year, saying they wanted the war ended, action on costs, an America First agenda and a change in the U.S. relationship with Israel. Trump said he had spoken with Vance that morning and approved of the post: "I think it was fine.
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