A new poll shows Democrat Peggy Flanagan and Republican Michele Tafoya locked in a close race for Minnesota’s open U.S. Senate seat, with Flanagan holding a narrow 44 percent to 42 percent advantage among likely voters. The two-point gap puts the candidates within a statistical tie, underscoring how competitive the contest could become as the November midterms approach.
The poll, conducted by TIPP/League of American Workers from August 31 to September 2 among 1,201 likely voters, also found 4 percent supporting other candidates, while 2 percent said someone else and 8 percent were not sure. The survey comes shortly after both candidates secured their party nominations last month, setting up a general election contest for the seat being vacated by Democratic Senator Tina Smith. The poll has a margin of error of 3 percent.
The League of American Workers is not formally affiliated with the Republican Party, but it is a conservative advocacy organization led by former Trump adviser Steve Cortes. Meanwhile, midterm elections are commonly viewed as a test of the political environment facing the party in power, and the president's party has historically lost seats during midterm elections. Republicans currently hold a narrow majority in the House and Senate, and The Cook Political Report currently rates the race as likely Democrat.
Former Vice President Kamala Harris also won the state by roughly 4 points in the 2024 presidential election over President Donald Trump. Flanagan campaign spokesperson Lexi Byler told Newsweek via email on Tuesday when reached for comment about the new poll, "Michele Tafoya would be nothing but a loyal soldier to Donald Trump. She supports his ICE and mass deportation agenda that led to two Minnesotans being killed, defended January 6 rioters who assaulted police officers and tried to overturn a free and fair election, and supports Trump’s reckless tariffs that are hammering farmers and driving up prices for everyone.
Tafoya even told Minnesotans to just 'keep a stiff upper lip' with the higher prices due to Trump’s illegal war in Iran and praised the One Big Beautiful Bill that is ripping health care away from hundreds of thousands of Minnesotans." "Michele Tafoya is fighting for what Trump wants, Peggy Flanagan is fighting for what working families need – Minnesotans know that and it’s why they will choose Peggy Flanagan in November," the statement concluded. Newsweek reached out to Tafoya's campaign via email on Tuesday for comment, and while she did not respond before publication time, she responded to the poll on X, saying, "Our race is in play! Minnesotans are fed up with billions in taxpayer dollars being stolen while the people in charge refuse to take responsibility.
Peggy Flanagan is the sitting lieutenant governor while criminals were stealing billions from Minnesota taxpayers. She doesn’t get to walk away from that record. Minnesotans deserve accountability.
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