The Democratic Party continues to gain momentum in its bid to take control of Congress in the upcoming midterm elections, according to a prominent election forecast. The Silver Bulletin’s FLIPR 2026 midterm election forecast gives the party a 73.9 percent chance of winning the Senate as of Tuesday, up noticeably from 50.6 percent a month prior. For the House, Democrats have a 92.9 percent chance of winning the chamber, according to the forecast, compared with an 82.7 percent chance last month.
The forecasted odds have also improved for the party in the Senate since mid-September, when Newsweek reported the Democrats’ chances of winning control at 58.6 percent. While President Donald Trump is not on the ballot, midterm elections are often viewed as a referendum on the sitting president and his party, which historically tends to lose ground in Congress. Trump previously urged supporters to “pretend that I’m on the ballot” as the Republican Party seeks to protect its House and Senate majorities.
The Silver Bulletin’s forecast also suggests that the Democratic Party is, on average, likely to pick up five Senate seats in November based on its simulations. Based on Silver Bulletin's race-by-race forecasts, Republican-held seats in North Carolina, Texas, Ohio, Maine and Alaska appear the most likely to be in play. In North Carolina, the Silver Bulletin gives Democrat Roy Cooper a 95.3 percent chance of winning the race to succeed outgoing Republican Senator Thom Tillis, who announced last year that he would not seek reelection.
Republican Michael Whatley is assigned a 4.7 percent chance of victory. "A Democrat has not won statewide federal office here in nearly two decades, and North Carolina is a 50-50 state," Jeff Allen, Cooper's North Carolina campaign manager said in a statement sent to Newsweek on Thursday. "We’re building a campaign to earn every vote and make sure North Carolinians know that Roy Cooper will fight for them." In Texas, the forecast gives Democrat James Talarico a 74.3 percent chance of defeating Republican Ken Paxton, who was assigned a 25.7 percent probability of victory.
Backed by Trump, Texas Attorney General Paxton defeated Senator John Cornyn to win the Republican nomination earlier this year. In Ohio, meanwhile, the Silver Bulletin estimates Democrat Sherrod Brown's chances of victory at 73.9 percent, compared with 26.1 percent for incumbent Republican Jon Husted. According to the forecast, Democrat Troy Jackson is favored in Maine's Senate race with a 70.6 percent chance of winning, while incumbent Republican Susan Collins trails.
The forecast also favors Democrat Mary Peltola in Alaska, assigning her a 64.6 percent chance of winning versus a 35.4 percent probability for incumbent Republican Senator Daniel Sullivan. Newsweek contacted the campaigns mentioned above for comment via email on Thursday. Newsweek also reached out to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and the Republican National Committee.
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