We're less than a week out from the start of the 2026-27 NBA season, and it stands to be a wild one after a summer of major movement, particularly in the Eastern Conference with LeBron James and Jaylen Brown to the 76ers, Kawhi Leonard to the Raptors, Giannis Antetokounmpo to the Heat, Jayson Tatum back for the Celtics, Tyrese Haliburton back for the Pacers and LaMelo Ball gone from the Hornets. In 2007-08, all eight playoff teams in the Western Conference won at least 50 games. I don't think it will happen again, but it could in this East.
There are that many good teams. Ultimately, I think there will be enough cannibalism to keep most of these really good teams in the 47 to 53-win range. I think the Pistons decline while the Raptors and Pacers rise.
That's what we're here for. To predict the over/under win totals for each Eastern Conference team based on lines currently set at FanDuel. This was a tough exercise, but the receipt is printed.
There's no going back now. The Hawks are following the modern blueprint of wings galore, adding Lu Dort and Aaron Wiggins to an already deep stable of Jalen Johnson, Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Dyson Daniels that helped lead them to 46 wins last season and a brief 2-1 lead over the Knicks in the first round of the playoffs. But the East is better and deeper this year, and the new lottery odds may hit Atlanta particularly hard.
Last year, the Hawks went 20-6 after the All-Star break, with 10 of those wins coming against actively tanking teams. The incentive to bottom out isn't there anymore, and with more teams actually playing to win down the stretch, teams like the Hawks will have to earn those late-season victories that fueled them a year ago. Atlanta is a better team than it was a year ago, but the win total won't reflect that.
Boston won 56 games a year ago and stands to be a better team this season, at least through the first 82 (we'll see if Paul George can actually stay healthy for the playoffs and how much Jaylen Brown's individual offense will be missed in postseason play). Look at it like this: Jayson Tatum, who basically didn't play last season, replacing Brown from last year's team is one upgrade. George replacing Anfernee Simons is two upgrades.
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