The most important players of a given NBA season are the best ones. The 2027 NBA champion will probably hinge first and foremost on the Victor Wembanyamas and Shai Gilgeous-Alexanders of the world. It's not as though the stars cancel each other out, but we take their greatness as a given and make predictions accordingly.
Where our predictions are usually wrong, though, is a tier or two down. A reserve becomes a starter. A starter becomes an All-Star.
An All-Star becomes a legend. Someone, or multiple someones, vastly outperforms expectations in a way that pushes his team over the top. These are the X-Factors of a given season, the players whose development or fit or health has a chance to turn a contender into a champion.
We've now seen a week of games in the 2026-27 season, and these are the players who stand out as the major swing pieces in the 2027 championship race. The Oklahoma City Thunder gave 11 players at least 900 minutes last season. Five of those players, due to either trade or injury, are either gone or should not be expected to return this season.
The Thunder preemptively replaced Isaiah Joe with Jared McCain in a move that now looks brilliant. The addition of Aday Mara deepens the front-court enough to potentially offset some of the lost wing depth, like Aaron Wiggins. The defensive losses of Lu Dort and Cason Wallace are substantial.
The same is true for Jalen Williams, perhaps more than either, because of his size. Still, the Thunder have an incredible collection of rim-protectors, and they still have Alex Caruso, who can guard anyone on the planet. They'll be able to find a wing defender on the trade market if they want to.
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