CoreWeave and Nebius are tumbling 7% and 5% despite triple-digit revenue growth, as rising long-term rates reprice their capital-heavy models. The 30-year Treasury yield hit a 19-year high of 5.25%, making each new neocloud project more expensive and compressing the value of revenues years out. Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and Nebius Group didn't make the cut.
Grab the names FREE today. Shares of neocloud operators are sliding hard at midday Tuesday as investors reprice the group against a fresh set of AI spending worries and a sharp move higher in long rates. CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV) is off 6.8%, Nebius Group (NASDAQ:NBIS) is down 5.2%, and TeraWulf (NASDAQ:WULF) is lower by 6.5%.
Three catalysts are converging. First, Anthropic told investors over the weekend that its ARR hit $65 billion at the end of July, and OpenAI recently reported ARR of $40 billion. Both numbers are huge, but they landed below the whisper figures circulating in Silicon Valley.
On the All In Podcast, Gavin Baker said he had heard Anthropic ARR was over $80 billion. separately reported Anthropic is pointing to 2028 revenue of $190 billion to $200 billion, versus investor expectations (once again from Gavin Baker and co-host David Sacks on the All-In Podcast) that had Anthropic exiting next year at an ARR of $400 billion to $500 billion. Second, a Wall Street Journal analysis found that nine top tech companies had some $3 trillion of off-balance-sheet commitments mostly related to AI, with those obligations growing faster than traditional capex, which totaled about $600 billion over the past year. That report puts the durability of hyperscaler AI commitments back on the table, which is exactly the backlog investors are pricing into neocloud equity values (the power, cooling, and networking suppliers riding the same buildout sit in a very different part of the stack, and we profiled seven of them in a free AI infrastructure report).
Third, and most important for this group, rates ripped higher. The 30-year Treasury yield sits at 5.33%, a 19-year high. The 10-year yield at 4.71% sits in the 96th percentile of the past 12 months.
Neoclouds are the most capital-hungry business model in AI. When the cost of that capital rises, the economics of each new project get worse and the market applies a bigger discount to revenue arriving years out. Recent operating news has been strong.
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