The fighting reported in and around Ethiopia's northern Tigray region marks more than another episode of tension between the federal government in Addis Ababa and the region's leadership. It raises a fundamental question: What remains of the fragile peace established in 2022 — and where does the conflict go from here? From 2020 to 2022, Ethiopia was devastated by a civil war between the federal government in Addis Ababa and Tigray's regional leadership.
The conflict drew in neighboring regions and foreign troops from Eritrea, leading to a humanitarian crisis that displaced millions and left hundreds of thousands dead. While a peace agreement halted the worst of the bloodshed in late 2022, it left many political and territorial disputes unresolved. DW spoke to witnesses in the towns of Abala and Erebti on the border with Tigray who confirmed that new fighting had taken place there between Tigray forces and Ethiopian federal troops.
Humanitarian sources also reported clashes in the area. Ethiopian Airlines has suspended flights to the cities of Mekelle, Shire and Axum, citing the "current situation in the Tigray region." Reports that Tigray forces have taken control of airports in the region could not be independently verified by DW. For Oslo-based peace researcher Kjetil Tronvoll, however, the latest developments represent a decisive escalation.
"I think the war has already begun," Tronvoll told DW. German security analyst Gerrit Kurtz of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) in Berlin also sees the developments as a serious escalation. "This is a step towards a war," he told DW.
The two sides are presenting fundamentally different accounts of what triggered the latest escalation. In a statement issued on September 23, the National Regional Government of Tigray said its forces had been responding defensively to an attack by the federal government. It accused Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government of launching a new "genocidal invasion" and said Tigray forces had been ordered to defend the population.
The Tigray government also accused Addis Ababa of carrying out air and drone strikes and artillery attacks in recent months. It said it had previously refrained from responding to what it described as repeated provocations in an effort to de-escalate the situation. The allegations could not independently be verified.
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