This article has been reviewed according to Science X's editorial process and policies. Editors have highlighted the following attributes while ensuring the content's credibility: UC Riverside scientists have developed a way to identify where Earth's biggest earthquakes are most likely to occur, offering a powerful new tool for improving disaster preparation in some of the most dangerous seismic regions. Rather than predicting the timing of an earthquake, the method identifies where stress has been building along major faults, allowing scientists to determine where a rupture is likely to take place.
In a recent test detailed in a Geophysical Research Letters paper, the researchers found that their model highlighted the exact section of the Kamchatka subduction zone in eastern Russia where a massive earthquake later occurred. The study was led by UCR geophysicists Gareth Funning and Axel Periollat, who study how Earth's surface slowly deforms as tectonic plates lock together before rupturing. "Earthquakes capture headlines when they happen, but for years beforehand the fault is quietly accumulating strain," Funning said.
"This strain can be measured." The team's approach focuses on subduction zones, where one tectonic plate slides beneath another. These regions generate Earth's largest earthquakes, including those exceeding magnitude 8.5, and often produce devastating tsunamis. Using GPS measurements of subtle ground movement, the researchers developed an algorithm that identifies portions of faults that are locked and storing energy.
These locked regions, known as asperities, act like patches of friction that resist motion until enough stress builds to trigger a major earthquake. The researchers had identified one such locked region beneath Russia's Kamchatka Peninsula before a large earthquake struck there. While the timing of the event was beyond the scope of their method, the rupture occurred exactly where their model indicated strain had accumulated.
"We had an idea where the strain was accumulating based on a relatively limited data set," Periollat said. "Seeing it work so well confirmed that this approach has real potential." The findings also revealed that earthquakes occurring in the same region can behave differently. Although Kamchatka experienced giant earthquakes in both 1952 and 2025, the more recent event generated a much smaller tsunami, suggesting the shallowest portion of the fault slipped less than during the earlier rupture.
The researchers emphasize that their method cannot predict tsunami size or earthquake timing. However, narrowing where the greatest hazards exist could improve long-term planning and preparedness. The team is now applying their approach to other major subduction zones in Japan, Mexico, New Zealand and the Pacific Northwest.
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