The NFL was essentially breakdancing on the tightrope last week, with every game seemingly coming down to the wire. In all, 12 games were decided by a single possession in Week 3, which tied the NFL record for a single week. Naturally, these tightly contested affairs produced some wildly entertaining games and a slew of upsets, making handicapping the slate quite an ordeal.
That led us to a 6-9-1 ATS record and an 8-8 straight-up record for the weekend. Not terrible, but not where we want to live week in, week out. That said, I was able to go 3-2 ATS within my locks of the week, with Marcus Mariota's Commanders and the red-hot Raiders playing spoiler for a clean sweep.
As we close out the first month of the regular season, I'll look to keep the momentum going by staying above .500 with my locks of the week, and claw us back over even for the overall ATS record for the season. We'll begin, as always, with my five locks of the week, which include three road teams pulling off the outright wins. Both clubs enter Week 4 after rather demoralizing losses on the road.
Case Keenum sliced Philly up on "Monday Night Football," and they now have to turn around and square off against the Matthew Stafford-led Rams on a short week. Meanwhile, L.A. lost a heartbreaker in Denver, which dropped the preseason "superteam" to 1-2 through the first three weeks. Each of these teams has yet to live up to their lofty expectations so far this year, but I think the Rams are in a better spot to pull off the win here.
Upon first glance, you might be eager to take the Eagles as a home dog, but they've historically not been kind to bettors in this setting. Since 2021 (Sirianni's first season as head coach), Philadelphia is 0-5 straight up (1-4 ATS) as a home underdog. When watching them this season, it's clear their offense is still a work in progress.
The Eagles have yet to score in the first quarter this season (the only team in the NFL yet to score) and have the highest three-and-out rate (29%) since 2025. When you pair that with a defense that has yet to generate a turnover and has registered just three sacks, there's an opportunity for the Rams to get out to an early lead and never look back. As we saw on Monday night, when you get the Eagles into a pass-heavy game script, it's not exactly "The Greatest Show on Turf." Projected score: Rams 24, Eagles 20The pick: Rams -3 It's a make-or-break game for each of these NFC squads, but I'd argue it's most important for the Packers.
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