We didn't just walk the balance beam in Week 7; we made camp on it. I was downright average over last week's slate, no matter which way you slice it. I went 8-6 straight-up and then 7-6-1 ATS.
Then, in my locks of the week, I went 2-3 ATS, which brings me to 17-17-1 ATS on the year. That's the definition of middling. It's not bad necessarily.
I could own a losing record with my locks, but let's remember what they're supposed to be -- LOCKS! We've been burned by a fair share of bad beats throughout the first half of the season and lost by the hook last week in our Vikings pick against the Colts, but there's no room for excuses. It's time to roll up our sleeves and get to work with an eye towards a more productive Week 8, which, as always, begins with my five locks of the week.
Note: New Orleans, New York (Giants), San Francisco, and Houston are on the bye in Week 8. The Colts are on the doorstep of selling off parts amid a 2-5 start to the year, which includes a three-game losing skid entering Week 8. It's hard to see a scenario where things change for the better this weekend, as they'll head to Jacksonville to face a 4-2 Jaguars team that'll be fresh off its bye week.
Coming into this slate, the Colts have a claim to be one of the worst offenses in the NFL. Their 4.5 yards-per-play average is tied for the worst in the league with the Eagles, and a large part of those issues lies at quarterback. Daniel Jones has yet to rekindle the version of himself from the first half of last year and has thrown an interception in all but one game so far in 2026.
Jones ranks 31st out of 33 eligible quarterbacks in passer rating this season, while his per dropback ranks 30th. Among quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts this year, Jones is tied for the second-highest turnover-worth-per-throw rate. He now faces a Jaguars pass defense that is just outside the top-10 in the league with an 87.7 passer rating allowed.
Extract — continue reading at the source.
