This article has been reviewed according to Science X's editorial process and policies. Editors have highlighted the following attributes while ensuring the content's credibility: Researchers at the University of Chicago's Climate Impact Lab combined temperature forecasts with research on how heat affects death rates in more than 24,000 regions worldwide and found that the super El Niño could cause an estimated 451,000 additional heat-related deaths worldwide between now and February 2027. Michael Greenstone was part of the research team, along with Tamma Carleton, Genevieve Maricle and Emily Grover-Kopec.
He explains why Africa's Sahel region is projected to be the hardest hit and why Nigeria is projected to be one of the worst-hit countries. He also explains what governments need to do now to protect people there. Africa's Sahel region is projected to face the greatest loss of life from the heat brought on by this year's strong El Niño.
The Sahel is a belt of dry land stretching across Africa from the Atlantic Ocean to the Red Sea, between the Sahara Desert in the north and tropical savannas in the south. It covers about 3.05 million square kilometers (1.18 million square miles) and cuts through parts of Mauritania, Mali, Niger, Chad, Nigeria, Sudan, Senegal and Eritrea. Four countries are projected to be most affected by El Niño from September 2026 through the end of February 2027: Nigeria, Sudan, Niger and Chad.
In Nigeria, more than 60% of people were estimated to live below the national poverty line in 2025, while even homes with electricity face power cuts. In Sudan, war has destroyed businesses and jobs and damaged power supplies, with an estimated 57% of people living in extreme poverty in 2025. In Niger, 41% lived below the national poverty line in 2021.
In Chad, 44.8% of the population lived in poverty in 2022. Many people in Niger and Chad depend on farming, leaving them exposed to droughts and poor harvests. Only 21% of people in Niger and 13% in Chad had electricity in 2024, leaving most without power to run even a fan.
Our projections show that these four countries will likely see 66,800 additional deaths from extreme heat compared with a normal year. Nearly half of these deaths—31,400—are projected to be in Nigeria, the most populous of the four with 237.5 million residents. This makes Nigeria the country most likely to have the world's highest heat-related death toll under the super El Niño.
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