The European Commission wants to ensure there is no repeat Viktor Orbán among the next generation of EU member states, as it set out plans to prepare for the bloc’s enlargement into eastern Europe in the next few years. In an interview with the Guardian and other European newspapers, the EU commissioner for enlargement, Marta Kos, outlined proposals for special safeguards to protect the bloc from leaders who could flout democratic values and hold hostage decision making, a pattern of behaviour exemplified for many by the former Hungarian prime minister. The plans would have to be agreed by EU member states.
The EU treaty’s article 7 permits member states to remove voting rights from a rogue member state for a “serious and persistent breach” of democratic values. But this so-called nuclear option has never been triggered, despite lengthy discussions about democratic backsliding in Poland and Hungary, under previous governments. The ultimate sanction was never taken, largely because the two central European allies used their veto power to protect each other.
Under the new proposals, the threshold for suspending voting rights – or another punishment – for breach of democratic standards, would be lower. An EU official said: “This is a big innovation and an important message to citizens in more enlargement-sceptical countries that we have a very strong framework even if something went wrong after enlargement.” But officials acknowledged the time-limited safeguard would eventually expire. The call for stricter safeguards comes amid new momentum in EU enlargement, with Montenegro, Albania, Moldova and Ukraine all identified as frontrunners.
The full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 injected new life into EU expansion, an issue which had long been moribund. Ukraine and Moldova filed applications to join the EU days after the Russian attack, a step that jolted life into EU accession efforts in the western Balkans, a region of 17.4 million people, where Russia and China are vying to gain influence. The EU’s existing 27 member states must agree unanimously to admit new member states, with scepticism notably high among French and Czech voters.
Nevertheless, Kos said she believed enlargement was politically possible. She named Russia and China as “external disruptive forces, who are after our candidates”. Describing enlargement as “our strategic interest”, she said: “If we are not able to integrate our neighbourhood, somebody else is coming [and] weaponising them against us.” As an example, she said Russia had “invested millions” trying to deter countries from a European path, citing elections in Moldova, an EU candidate country, and Armenia, which is seeking closer EU ties.
China, on the other hand, she suggested, uses its economic clout as an investor to influence countries. EU officials hope to open negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova on two negotiating areas of EU law next week. Specifically, these are the “clusters” – thematic groups of negotiating files – for internal market and competitiveness, a vast swathe of the EU rulebook covering economic and monetary policy, tax policy, research and media.
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