The race for Ohio governor has shifted in Democrat Amy Acton’s favor, with Sabato’s Crystal Ball moving the contest from Toss-up to Leans Democratic after Republican Vivek Ramaswamy’s campaign released a deeply personal attack ad featuring the former state health chief's estranged mother. The election forecaster said Acton, Ohio’s former health director, who rose to prominence during the COVID-19 pandemic, had established a public polling advantage over Ramaswamy in a state where Democrats have won only one of the past nine gubernatorial elections. Its change means Acton is now considered the favorite, although her victory is not assured.
The ad features Donna Arthur, Acton’s long-estranged mother, calling her daughter a liar and disputing her account of her childhood. It prompted bipartisan criticism because Acton has said she was removed from her mother’s custody at 12 after suffering sexual abuse by her stepfather, who was indicted on a rape charge but died without facing prosecution. Ramaswamy’s campaign confirmed that it produced the spot and told the that it would spend $4 million airing it online and on television.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball said the still-developing fallout “may ultimately hurt” Ramaswamy, while warning that Ohio polling has previously underestimated Republicans. It noted in an update that the Nate Silver polling average placed Acton ahead by roughly 4.7 points as of Wednesday. However, that average does not include a Fox News poll released Wednesday night, which showed Acton ahead by 2 points.
A Marist Poll, conducted October 15 to 18 among 1,176 registered voters, put Acton ahead by 50 percent to 43 percent among likely voters, with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points. She led independents by 53 percent to 34 percent. That survey was completed before the controversy, however, meaning it cannot show whether the advertisement changed voters’ views.
Newsweek contacted the Acton and Ramaswamy campaigns via email for comment on Thursday. This is a developing story. Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story.
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