Ohio State knew its margin for error would be thin this season against one of the nation's most treacherous schedules. That comes with the territory for a program armed with an elite roster, endless resources and College Football Playoff expectations. Now, the No. 1-but-not-for-long Buckeyes must prove they can absorb an early punch and get back in the ring stronger than ever.
Ryan Day's squad let Texas hang around in the second half before Arch Manning and the Longhorns hit the afterburners with 21 fourth-quarter points to stun Ohio State. The early-season loss is narrative-setting for the Buckeyes, who approach Big Ten play later this month in need of style points -- and a bunch of remaining wins -- to guarantee a return trip to the 12-team bracket. There is enough on the table to potentially even absorb a three-loss season (though I see that as unlikely unless one of those losses occurs in the Big Ten Championship Game) and there are enough wins to bolster the Buckeyes' credentials.
Paths to the CFP vary for a team that is capable from winning out from here, but the likelihood that happens with several more marquee matchups on the docket is daunting. The Buckeyes remain firmly in the national title conversation, but the problem is what comes next. There's no need to panic, Buckeyes fans.
Ohio State knows exactly what it needs to do to get back to the CFP this season. However, with four games left against nationally-ranked competition — likely five if Michigan jumps back in this week — it's not getting any easier from here. Ohio State has battled through the conference slate unbeaten previously under Day, but there's more pressure this time around.
Day can authentically sell his team on one truth following the road loss to Texas: they're still in this, but need to ensure their best is brought every game the rest of the way. There's still margin for error, but it diminishes quickly with each loss in the Big Ten. And don't sweat getting there with multiple losses to unranked competition, a harsh reality Ohio State shouldn't have to worry about given the talent discrepancy against most in the conference.
This is my most likely scenario, which puts them at around the 8-seed range. Ohio State is still -145 to make the CFP, sixth-best among all college football teams. The schedule is certainly beefy enough to have an argument, but the Buckeyes need Texas to stay elite and compete near the top of the SEC for its quality loss to stay put.
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