Brent crude climbed back above $100 a barrel Wednesday as fresh Middle East attacks threatened oil supplies—Houthi militants have targeted Saudi Arabia—putting President Donald Trump on two competing timers before the midterms. Affordability is already a political vulnerability for Trump's Republican Party, which enters a set of midterms having to explain why a president elected to bring down the cost of living took America into a war of choice with Iran that has increased it. Trump says his military campaign against Iran is justified to prevent Tehran from ever developing a nuclear weapon and to bring an end to the regime's malign influence in the region, including its capacity to disrupt energy flows through the vital Strait of Hormuz.
A /Ipsos poll conducted August 28-31 found that 47 percent of registered voters considered the cost of living the most important factor in their midterm vote, while 71 percent of adults disapproved of Trump’s handling of the issue. Historically, about half of a crude-price change reaches consumers at the pump within two weeks and roughly 80 percent within four weeks, according to past analysis by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Drivers are already seeing a fresh rise at the pump. AAA put the national average for regular gasoline at $4.224 a gallon on Wednesday, up from $4.151 a day earlier, $4.120 a week ago and $3.193 a year ago. At current prices, a 15-gallon fill-up costs about $15.50 more than it did a year earlier.
Diesel, which can feed into businesses’ transportation costs, reached a record national average of $5.942 a gallon Wednesday. An added political complication is that official inflation numbers that dominate the headlines can tell voters an older story than the prices displayed on the roadside. The latest Consumer Price Index showed gasoline prices falling 2.9 percent in July from June, although they were still 24.6 percent higher than a year earlier.
The August CPI is due September 11, meaning this week’s renewed pump-price increase will fall outside that report. Voters could therefore feel another burst of energy inflation before it is fully visible in the government’s headline inflation data. There is also evidence that gasoline carries unusual political weight.
A 2025 study in American Politics Research found that real gasoline prices had predictive value for presidential approval, with the researchers pointing to the direct “pocketbook” effect on households. The finding does not mean the latest spike will necessarily hurt Trump—and his approval rating is already at historic lows—but it shows why an extended duration of high pump prices can deepen political costs to a president. Trump, meanwhile, has promoted a new Venezuelan oil agreement as a way to increase supply and lower prices.
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