A strong El Niño expected to persist through winter could help produce milder conditions across much of the United States while directing more rain and snow toward parts of the West and South, according to the Old Farmer’s Almanac. The publication said unusually warm water across the equatorial Pacific can alter the jet stream, changing the routes taken by storms, cold air and precipitation over North America. It said its 2026-2027 forecast reflects some patterns commonly associated with strong El Niño winters, although the Almanac stressed that the climate phenomenon is only one factor shaping the season.
Meanwhile, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center said in its August outlook that El Niño was already present and strengthening. It placed the probability of a very strong event during fall and winter at more than 90 percent, with a 69 percent chance that its October-December three-month strength would exceed that of previous events dating to 1950. El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, a recurring Pacific climate pattern that can affect weather worldwide.
Its counterpart, La Niña, is the cool phase of the cycle. Typical El Niño effects can include stormier weather across the Southern U.S., drier conditions in some northern areas and changes in hurricane activity. "Super El Niño" is not a formal NOAA classification.
It is commonly used to describe an exceptionally strong event. The Almanac expects a predominantly mild winter, with near- or above-normal temperatures across much of the country. Exceptions include an area running from central New England through the Appalachians and into the Ohio Valley, where below-normal temperatures are forecast.
It forecasts wetter-than-normal conditions across much of the West and portions of the South, Midwest and Florida. Above-normal snowfall is projected in parts of the Northeast and Appalachians, the Intermountain West, Pacific Northwest and Alaska. The Pacific Southwest is expected to be warmer and wetter, with near- to above-normal mountain snowfall.
Forecasts from NOAA and the Almanac share some broad signals for the season, particularly across the Northern U.S. and parts of the West. NOAA favors above-normal temperatures along the northern tier, with probabilities exceeding 50 percent from the Pacific Northwest to the Northeast. The Almanac likewise predicts above-normal temperatures in the Pacific Northwest, Upper Midwest, Lower Lakes and northern Northeast.
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