Nairobi, Kenya – One year after Raila Odinga’s death, the political movement he led for decades is struggling to define its future. Within the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), a bitter dispute over cooperation with President William Ruto has exposed divisions over the party’s identity and independence. The struggle raises a question that extends beyond ODM’s leadership: Can Kenya’s opposition remain a credible force without the man who helped shape it?
Raila’s death prompted tributes and commemorations celebrating a political career defined by the struggle for multiparty democracy, constitutional reform, freedom of expression and social justice. Yet the divisions now confronting his party reveal the difficulty of sustaining a political movement built around one dominant figure. His legacy remains a source of inspiration, but also a point of contention over what ODM should stand for and how it should exercise power.
At the centre of the dispute is ODM’s relationship with Ruto’s administration. The removal of Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna, who opposed closer cooperation with the president, has become a flashpoint in a wider struggle over the party’s direction. The disagreement is about more than personalities: It raises questions about whether ODM can work with the government while retaining the independence to challenge it.
For decades, Raila occupied a central place in Kenya’s reform movements, challenging successive governments and campaigning for political change. To his supporters, he represented resistance and the promise of a more accountable political system. His influence, however, also meant that the opposition’s ability to unite often depended on his personal authority, political networks and capacity to negotiate competing interests.
Political analyst Professor Herman Manyora argues that Raila’s absence has left a vacuum that the opposition has struggled to fill. I think there’s a way in which people thought Raila was not going to die. We had immortalised Raila,” Manyora says.
He argues that the opposition has yet to find a figure capable of bringing its competing interests together. There isn’t a figure that people can rally around,” he says. The assessment points to a challenge that predates Raila’s death but has become more visible since it: A movement can inherit a leader’s political legacy without necessarily inheriting the authority that held it together.
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