The film year has already delivered, led by Christopher Nolan’s “The Odyssey,” a July event picture that doubled as the first true best picture launch of 2026. Back in May, Cannes fired the opening shots, sending Palme d’Or winner “Fjord,” Netflix-acquired Spanish-language epic “La Bola Negra” and Russian drama “Minotaur” down the Croisette with buzz that will trail them into the fall. But a frontrunner in August is just a film with an earlier release date.
Over the next six weeks, the Oscars race will unspool in waves — the thin air of Telluride, the carpets of Venice’s Lido, the crowds of Toronto, the tastemakers of New York — with a single afternoon screening able to rewrite the whole narrative. The festivals are set, and the year is loaded. And a moonwalk, a Homeric voyage and a Pixar goodbye are all in play at the same time.
Here’s where the race stands. Ryan Gosling has three Oscar nominations — for “Half Nelson,” “La La Land” and “Barbie” — and no wins, and this adaptation of Andy Weir’s novel could hand him another shot. It also marks the live-action sci-fi leap of Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, the “Lego Movie” and “21 Jump Street” duo.
Oscar history isn’t usually kind to directing partnerships: Only a handful have been nominated, most recently the Daniels for “Everything Everywhere All at Once.” Lord and Miller could join that short list, if Amazon MGM builds a friendly reminder campaign around them. No surprise, Nolan is the man to beat, and “The Odyssey” is exactly the kind of feat the Academy’s directors branch loves to reward. His adaptation of Homer’s epic arrived to a wave of critical love, the rare summer tentpole with awards ambition built into its foundation: mythic source material, a starry ensemble and a theatrical approach designed to make the format itself part of the conversation.
Two years after the “Oppenheimer” sweep — his first directing Oscar and a best picture win shared with wife and producing partner Emma Thomas — Nolan enters this campaign with a lot of Academy goodwill. Matt Damon’s Odysseus could put him in serious play in the actor race after winning a screenwriting Oscar nearly 30 years ago for “Good Will Hunting.” At the same time, John Leguizamo, Robert Pattinson, Anne Hathaway and Samantha Morton crowd a supporting field. Every season has an unofficial Oscar “villain” — think “Green Book,” “Bohemian Rhapsody” and “Emilia Pérez.” This year has a moonwalk.
Jaafar Jackson’s transformation into the King of Pop will be the main talking point, and two-time Oscar nominee Colman Domingo’s chilling turn as family patriarch Joe Jackson lends the film gravity. Factor in the craft branches — editing, sound and makeup and hairstyling — and voters have plenty of boxes to check. Olivia Wilde’s third feature is her sleekest, most assured work behind the camera, and A24 is mounting a full fall campaign.
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