Democratic Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan holds a narrow lead over Republican Michele Tafoya in Minnesota's U.S. Senate race, according to a new poll, though her advantage falls within the survey's margin of error, highlighting a competitive contest less than two months before Election Day on November 3. The poll comes as Democrats eye a narrow path to reclaiming control of Congress' upper chamber, where Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority.
To take back the majority, Democrats must defend their current seats—including in two states President Donald Trump won in his 2024 White House bid—and flip four others. Midterm elections are commonly viewed as a test of the political environment facing the party in power, and the president's party historically loses seats. The Cook Political Report currently rates the Minnesota Senate race as likely Democrat.
Newsweek has reached out to the Flanagan and Tafoya campaigns for comment via email on Friday. Flanagan and Tafoya are vying for the seat held by Democrat Tina Smith, who is retiring. Minnesota last elected a Republican senator in 2002, backing Norm Coleman.
In 2008, he lost reelection to Democrat Al Franken. Flanagan defeated Representative Angie Craig in the primary in August in a victory for the Democratic Party’s more progressive wing, which has seen several candidates prevail in recent primaries. Flanagan received backing from independent Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and Minnesota Representative Ilhan Omar, making the race another example of the ongoing divide between progressive and moderate Democrats.
Tafoya, a former longtime NFL sideline reporter, won the Republican nomination and is seeking to turn her name recognition and political outsider profile into a victory. The race has drawn national attention as Republicans look to make gains in Minnesota, even though Democrats have maintained a strong statewide advantage in recent elections. Cook Political Report shifted the race from Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat in August.
Vice President Kamala Harris, whose running mate was Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, won the state by roughly 4 percentage points in the 2024 presidential election over President Donald Trump. In 2016, Minnesota backed former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by less than 2 percentage points against Trump. President Barack Obama did better in the state, carrying it by nearly 8 points in 2012 and more than 10 points in 2008.
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