Our top tipster Lewis Jones, aka Jones Knows, provides his analysis and betting insight ahead of the weekend's Premier League action. Chelsea have been vulnerable to exactly the sort of physical, second-ball and set-piece football Brentford specialise in. There is a softness about them which was exposed by Hull City, who scored from a corner when Emi Martinez failed to deal cleanly with a delivery.
Brentford will be licking their lips and getting their knives and forks ready for a set-piece feast. Out of the 17 ever-present Premier League teams since the start of last season, Chelsea have conceded the second most goals from set pieces at 0.5 per game and the Bees have hit them via this method in previous fixtures, amassing a per-game average of 0.73 for expected goals from set pieces from the past three meetings. Chelsea look there for the taking with Brentford on offer at Evens in the draw no bet market.
There is a striking amount of evidence pointing towards a low-scoring game. Tottenham's problems in front of goal are well documented - zero scored in four Premier League matches to a backdrop of just 0.95 expected goals per game. Roberto De Zerbi's teams averaged 1.92 goals scored per game at Brighton and Marseille, so to average just 0.73 per game since taking the Spurs job showcases a worrying trait for the environment at the club.
There seems a "mental block" holding this football club back. Villa have scored just one goal themselves this season in the Premier League. Both teams have genuine attacking-process problems, but for different reasons.
Tottenham have possession and territory without enough penetration while Aston Villa are struggling to generate much shot volume at all. Under 2.5 goals at 10/11 with Sky Bet looks too good to turn down. Fabian Hurzeler has yet to taste victory over Mikel Arteta across five meetings but his Brighton team have certainly bloodied the nose of the champions.
In games that have produced plenty of needle - even between the managers - Brighton have won four of the five expected goals battles which points towards this being a tricky encounter for the visitors despite their perfect start to the season. I'd be wary of taking the 7/10 with Sky Bet for an away win, with the double chance for Brighton at 11/10 much more appealing. Olivier Boscagli should be lining up against Bukayo Saka, who looks back to his dangerous best with the ball.
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