Our top tipster Lewis Jones, aka Jones Knows, provides his analysis and betting insight for a busy weekend of Premier League action. There should be a bit of needle when Liam Delap returns to Ipswich. He was one of the few shining lights in their relegation campaign but this time he will be the opposition striker the Portman Road crowd are desperate to get under the skin of.
Delap is an emotional player who thrives on playing on the edge. He admitted recently that he performs at his best when he is in the face of opponents, which tells you plenty about his mentality. That aggression can be a huge asset for a striker but it can also leave him vulnerable to losing his cool when the game gets heated.
The numbers back up the angle. During that Ipswich campaign in 2024/25, Delap averaged 2.6 fouls per 90 minutes and was booked 12 times in the Premier League. He has already collected two yellow cards in five starts for Forest this season, suggesting the combative side of his game remains firmly intact.
Referee Thomas Bramall also has history with Delap, having sent him off for two yellow cards in Chelsea's win at Wolves last season. Now add the emotional backdrop of facing his former supporters, who will know exactly how to provoke a reaction and Delap to be carded is a fantastic bet at 3/1 with Sky Bet. I always want to be with Unai Emery's teams when they are big underdogs at home.
The numbers make a compelling case for doing so again here, with Aston Villa's record against the Premier League's elite at Villa Park under Emery bordering on remarkable. Since the start of the 2023/24 season, Villa have played 13 home games against teams that finished in the top four that season, winning eight, drawing two and losing just three. That is an average of 2.00 points per game - a return that would have generated a £16 profit from £1 level stakes backing Villa to win in each match.
All three of Villa's home wins over Manchester City in that sample are included in that record. City's reputation and their perfect start to this campaign are understandably reflected in the market, but they should not automatically make Villa a team to oppose. Emery's side have also found their rhythm after a difficult start to the season, winning at Newcastle in the manner of a well-oiled Emery machine.
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