Our top tipster Lewis Jones, aka Jones Knows, provides his analysis and betting insight for a busy weekend of Premier League action. This has the potential to be a tough watch - and that is absolutely fine when you are getting 11/8 with Sky Bet about a game producing two goals or fewer. Michael Carrick needs to get Manchester United into some sort of shape, with no wins in eight games across all competitions and the pressure mounting after Sunday's 3-0 home defeat to Bournemouth.
Expect pragmatism over adventure at Stamford Bridge. United need a platform to build from, not another chaotic shoot-out and Carrick has reason to prioritise defensive discipline over taking risks. The numbers support that approach, too.
Away Premier League games under Carrick across his last 11-game spell have averaged just 2.15 goals. Chelsea's attacking reputation is doing plenty of the work in the market but the absence of Joao Pedro is significant and helps makes United a value play at the prices which have them at 3/1 with Sky Bet for the away win. In nine Premier League games without the Brazilian, Chelsea have averaged 0.9 fewer goals per 90 minutes.
That is a substantial drop-off in output and his thigh injury leaves Xabi Alonso needing to find another route to goal. There is a fatigue angle worth exploring here. Bournemouth are playing their sixth game in 22 days.
The highs have been significant, too, with wins over AC Milan and Manchester United. Marco Rose is rotating his pack accordingly, but the accumulated demands of this run could catch up with Bournemouth. You can only keep asking the same players to deliver at intensity for so long before the legs start to feel it.
Leeds, by contrast, have enjoyed a far quieter build-up. Daniel Farke's side drew 0-0 at Sunderland on Sunday and have had the luxury of a clear midweek to prepare for this trip. That extra recovery time could prove important against opponents who have barely had a moment to breathe.
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