Poland has heightened its air defence posture, following repeated alleged incursions into its airspace in recent weeks. The Polish Air Force launched preventive air patrols on September 17 aimed at securing the eastern part of Polish airspace. Warsaw officially blamed Russia, but Moscow has denied allegations that it is targeting NATO nations.
We are increasing the activity of our air forces, including F-16 aircraft and helicopters,” wrote Polish Defence Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz on social media. Those patrols came with a political warning. Days later, on September 23, Poland said an Mi-8 helicopter entered Polish airspace from Kaliningrad for 42 seconds.
The most serious Polish claim of a violation was by a Russian Su-24 reconnaissance aircraft in the Baltic Sea in February 2025, an incident Russia reportedly acknowledged. During the past week, suspected Russian drones were shot down twice in Moldova, and once in Romania on September 24, observers said. Poland and Romania are two NATO members immediately bordering Ukraine through which military supplies and Western officials have reached Ukraine.
Hungary is also a NATO member bordering Ukraine, but has not allowed military supplies through its territory. The latest alleged airspace violations have again raised the spectre of an open Russian attack on NATO territory, a prospect European intelligence chiefs have been warning about since January 2024. Czech intelligence chief Michal Koudelka this week told The Guardian that a Russian attack, which “could involve a limited incursion, false-flag provocations, [or] a massive influence campaign”, might come in a matter of “months, not years”.
During the past week, Russian officials made claims to have captured towns in the eastern Ukrainian Donetsk region. Russia’s Ministry of Defence said on September 19 Moscow’s forces had seized 5,300 square kilometres (2,050 square miles) and more than 220 settlements in Ukraine since the start of 2026. Moscow launched drone strikes against Ukrainian cities every night of the week, and combined them with missiles on September 19, 22 and 24, killing at least eight people and injuring dozens.
One of those deaths was a cleric at a monastery in Kherson. Two were killed when Russia launched three waves of ballistic missiles at Kyiv, including a maternity clinic. More than 950 of these were ballistic missiles,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told the United Nations General Assembly.
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