A short distance north from Warsaw along the Vistula river, camouflaged missile launchers roll through the quiet village of Czosnów. As recently as two years ago, their destination – a hi-tech weapons facility opened this month – had been a cornfield. Now, as Poland drives up defence investment at one of the fastest rates in the developed world, this rural spot has been transformed amid Europe’s response to Russian aggression and US disengagement.
Based in the UK, the former Royal Marine says Poland is shifting from importing its weapons to manufacturing them at home. So we decided to invest in-the country to create a facility. We had to build up our Polish subsidiary – and that means Polish jobs.” Poland’s defence budget has grown at a blistering pace.
Since Vladimir Putin ordered Russian troops into Ukraine almost five years ago, spending as a share of Polish gross domestic product (GDP) has more than doubled from 2.2% to 4.8% this year. In cash terms, this equates to $53bn (£39.8bn), the fourth-highest in the EU after Germany, France and Italy. Attention in Warsaw is clearly focused on the risk of an imminent Russian test of Nato resolve.
However, there is also another motive: growing the economy. Inside the soundproofed, airlock-style doors enclosing his office in Warsaw, Marcin Bosacki, Poland’s deputy foreign minister, says Russian aggression is heavily influencing the Polish government’s plans for economic development and cooperation with EU and Nato allies. Strengthening economic ties in the pursuit of military readiness would discourage Putin (“a traditional Russian imperialist”) from attacking Nato, Bosacki adds.
And so the more we are united and strong, the less likely the outcome of more aggressive Russian provocations against Nato member states is.” Hope remains for a diplomatic solution. This month, Donald Trump’s envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner held talks in Moscow with Putin and in Kyiv with the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Next month, further negotiations are scheduled in Abu Dhabi.
However, diplomatic sources believe Russia is unlikely to cede ground – rendering Nato’s demonstrations of military readiness critical. History shows defence and economics are closely intertwined. Statisticians first devised GDP as a metric in response to the 1930s Great Depression and needs of wartime planning to gauge the capacity of an economy.
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