Since the start of the season, we've been projecting the full NFL playoff field every week, and after four weeks of action, things are suddenly starting to get a little clearer around the NFL. For instance, we can probably all agree that the Chargers won't be in the playoffs. With the NFL season nearly 25% complete, we're starting to get a sense of who the contenders are and who the pretenders are.
To figure out who the true playoff contenders might be, we had our analytics expert, Stephen Oh, simulate the rest of the 2026 season. There are 208 games left on the regular-season schedule, along with 13 playoff games, and Oh simulated ALL of them. Not only did he project the 14 teams that will end up making the playoffs, but he also crowned a Super Bowl champion.
With that in mind, let's get to the projections. And just as a reminder, we're projecting what the NFL playoff field will look like at the end of the season. This is NOT the current playoff standings.
Before the season started, Pete Prisco predicted that the Jaguars would win the Super Bowl and I'm not sure if he somehow hacked our projection, but right now, the Jags are looking like they're going to finish near the top of the AFC. Here's the projected AFC playoff field: 1. Chiefs (4-0) -- AFC West champion 2.
Jaguars (3-1) -- AFC South champion 3. Bills (3-1) -- AFC East champion 4. Ravens (3-1) -- AFC North champion 5.
Patriots (2-2) The computer has the top six teams comfortably getting into the playoffs, but there was a big battle for the final wild-card spot in the AFC. In our projection, the Patriots ended up edging out the Bengals on a tiebreaker to earn the last spot. If that actually happens, Zac Taylor's job security will become a hot topic going into the offseason.
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