Quantum computers can use a concept called superposition to simulate multiple solutions to a problem simultaneously, so they're better than traditional computers at processing data-intensive workloads in areas like science and cryptography. However, despite their incredible potential, even the best quantum computers still make too many errors to be useful for solving real-world problems. Some estimates suggest this challenge could take decades to overcome, which is bad news for companies trying to commercialize their quantum systems today.
Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI) is one of the industry leaders right now, but it's still generating a minimal amount of revenue and burning through a ton of cash. Its stock is currently down by 60% from its peak, and here's where I predict it will be in one year from now. This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again.
In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue » Rigetti has built its own supply chain, so it can bring updated quantum systems to market much faster than its competitors.
It operates its own fabrication facility, it developed its own quantum programming language, and it even built a cloud platform where it can monetize quantum computing capacity by renting it to other businesses. Rigetti's Cepheus-1-108Q is one of the industry's largest multichip systems. It features 108 qubits, which is three times as many as the company's previous Cepheus-1-36Q system.
It also boasts a single qubit gate fidelity of 99.9%, meaning it can be expected to make just one error per every 1,000 quantum operations. However, qubits are highly sensitive to noise and interference, so getting two or more of them to work together in harmony is one of the biggest challenges in quantum computing. Therefore, Cepheus-1-108Q still only has a 2-qubit gate fidelity of 99.1%, implying nine errors per 1,000 operations, which isn't great when applying the computer to complex problems.
Rigetti believes it could take another three years to achieve a 2-qubit gate fidelity of 99.9%, and it will involve improving chip design, materials, and fabrication processes. The company secured a grant from the U.S. government worth $100 million over the next three years, which will help fund some of those improvements. But in order for quantum computers to actually make an impact in the real world, Cathie Wood's Ark Investment Management predicts another 20 to 40 years' worth of development is required.
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