People are being told to prepare for "the unthinkable" as flood response teams warn of a heightened risk over the autumn. Natural Resources Wales (NRW) said it was concerned by long-range forecasts, external which indicated an increased likelihood of wetter, windier weather than usual over the coming months. Those living in flood-hit areas told BBC Wales they were worried, and had started preparing.
One in seven properties in Wales is classed as being at risk of flooding, but NRW said just 27% of those eligible to receive flood warnings to their phone or email were currently signed up. After a summer marked by drought and wildfires, the organisation has urged people "not to become complacent" and said conditions could change quickly. Wales has seen a series of major floods in recent years, often in the wake of powerful storms such as Dennis in 2020, Bert and Darragh in 2024 and Claudia in 2025.
The threat comes from both rivers and the sea, while surface water flooding - where local drainage systems become overwhelmed during heavy downpours - is seen as an increasing danger. NRW argues that the country's geography makes it particularly vulnerable - with a vast coastline and several so-called "fast-responding" rivers which can fill at speed as rain runs off steep terrain in places like the south Wales valleys. More than 274,500 homes and businesses are currently classed at risk of flooding, with this figure set to increase significantly by the end of the century.
On the high street in Monmouth, people told BBC Wales of "harrowing" and "dreadful" scenes when major flooding hit in November 2025. Friends Malcolm Butcher, 82, Jim Tyler, 81, Brian Churches, 82 and Dave Blake, 82, said they had lived in the town all their lives "and never seen anything like it". "At 2:30 in the morning when it hit it was unbelievable... absolutely raging," Malcolm said.
If it had happened in the daytime "people would have died", he added. Eighteen cars on his road were lost to the flood waters - including his own, while the houses in the street behind were all flooded out. "It is a worry, we have three rivers running into Monmouth... and the winters are changing," he said.
People could help prepare for floods by moving "the good stuff upstairs" and making sure they had sandbags to hand ahead of bad weather, he said. "It's not back to normal yet but we're getting there," added Imogen Elliot, 82. "Waitrose was four feet in water and it went right up the street - we've had flooding before but not like that." Jane Roche, who runs a café and fishmongers on the banks of the River Teifi in Cardigan, Ceredigion, has helped coordinate a community flood plan for the area.
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