BARENTSBURG, Norway — For the best part of a century, the biggest threat to the residents of Svalbard was polar bears. Increasingly, it now comes from Russia. Fears are growing that Moscow could use the sprawling Arctic archipelago — a part of Norway with an unusual legal status — to test NATO militarily amid growing uncertainty over the U.S. commitment to European defense.
Allies suspect Russia of probing crucial undersea cables in the waters off Svalbard and staging military-style events that test the limits of the rules governing its presence there. As Russia ramps up hybrid attacks across Europe, Oslo is racing to boost its naval and surveillance capabilities to protect its northern flank, while local authorities on Svalbard are investing in critical infrastructure — and even have an evacuation plan in place. For decades, Moscow and Oslo have largely kept tensions from boiling over — but that delicate balance is now under growing strain.
Western countries are increasingly worried about Russian hybrid attacks in Europe and warn that Moscow could attempt a limited incursion against a NATO member by the end of the decade. Beyond its remoteness — lying over 900 kilometers from mainland Norway — and its glacial temperatures, that was down to the archipelago's unique status. Under a 1920 international treaty, countries recognized Oslo’s sovereignty over the islands and in return gained resource exploitation rights — with the Soviets buying the town of Barentsburg to mine local coal deposits soon after.
The treaty also forbade any nation from using Svalbard for “warlike purposes” including the construction of naval bases and fortifications, but Norway does visit the archipelago with coast guard and military vessels. At its Cold War peak, 2,400 Soviet citizens lived on Spitsbergen, the only populated island, making up around 70% of its population. Moscow has little incentive to upend the treaty because it could rebound against its own interests.
With Russia’s northwestern Kola Peninsula — home to two-thirds of its nuclear second-strike submarines — sitting around 1,000 kilometers away, “Russia has been cautious to avoid any kind of escalation,” Myklebost said. That makes it strategic for NATO, too. Yet tensions have grown following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Since 2022, local Russian officials have faced criticism for hosting a youth organization indirectly linked to the navy, announcing missile exercises nearby and holding annual parades with military insignia that once included a helicopter flyover. Moscow also began direct boat trips from Russia in 2024 and last year set up a chapter of the Russian Geographical Society, which is led by former Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. Although Barentsburg’s coal reserves are dwindling, Moscow is not abandoning the town.
Extract — continue reading at the source.
