In kitchens and Telegram chats across Russia, the same question is being asked with growing frequency: will Vladimir Putin order another mobilisation? Nearly five years into the war, Russia is scrambling to find enough soldiers to replenish its ranks, as voluntary recruitment slows and its forces suffer heavy losses on the battlefield in Ukraine. With Putin showing no sign of abandoning his far-reaching territorial demands, even as Russia’s summer offensive stalls, the Kremlin faces a growing manpower headache.
Putin last resorted to mobilisation in September 2022, when a series of dramatic battlefield setbacks forced the Kremlin to call up 300,000 reservists to stabilise the front. Since then, Moscow has avoided another deeply unpopular call-up by relying largely on high paid voluntary contracts to fill the ranks with roughly 1.3 million contract soldiers Russia has recruited since. Men, particularly from Russia’s poorer regions, have been offered life-changing signing bonuses and salaries on open-ended contracts amounting to several years of local wages, alongside substantial payouts to their families if they are killed.
But Russia’s heavy losses mean it must continue finding new soldiers at a high rate. Western estimates put Russian casualties at more than 30,000 killed and wounded a month, a toll that reflects the army’s attritional “meat grinder” tactics, in which troops are repeatedly sent forward in small assault groups despite heavy losses. Moscow, meanwhile, now recruits roughly 1,000 soldiers a day, according to calculations by Janis Kluge, a Russia expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, which means most new recruits are used to replenish depleted units rather than expand Russia’s offensive capacity.
That has once again raised the prospect of mobilisation. Top Russian officials have dismissed reports of an impending call-up, with former president Dmitry Medvedev describing them as “nonsense” and a “lying provocation” by Ukraine. Two people familiar with discussions in Moscow also said there was no indication that Putin had decided to order another mass mobilisation.
A senior western official likewise said there were no signs that a decision had been taken. But fears that another call-up may be on the way have nevertheless increasingly entered everyday conversations. In Telegram chats used by local sports teams, work colleagues and groups of friends, Russians swap rumours about a possible mobilisation and share advice on securing exemptions or avoiding the draft.
Some speculate that a new call-up could come after September’s elections to the Duma. But he said the renewed speculation was already being exploited to boost recruitment. Over the summer, lawyers and activists have documented increasingly coercive recruitment tactics in several regions, with men detained on the street by police, taken from workplaces or summoned to stations – before being brought to military recruitment offices and pressed to sign contracts.
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