WASHINGTON — President Trump’s pledge to give every American adult $5,000 if Republicans retain control of Congress in November is drawing scrutiny over its legality, the price tag and whether he truly intends to follow through on such a spectacular promise. Speaking at the Republican midterm convention in Dallas on Wednesday night, Trump told the crowd that if the GOP wins, Americans will “win with us” and get paid. He added: “It will be called the Trump Dividend.” But the proposal — which would need congressional approval — raised immediate questions about whether the president can legally promise voters a payout contingent on his party’s success at the polls and drew criticism from both sides of the aisle, including some GOP donors, who saw the idea as a potential bribe.
Legal experts, meanwhile, say the pledge — however unusual — is unlikely to run afoul of federal bribery and vote-buying statutes. It is almost certainly protected by the 1st Amendment, said UCLA law professor Rick Hasen. But in a statement, White House spokesperson Davis Ingle dismissed the criticism, saying it was fueled by “the doomers and naysayers” who have consistently doubted Trump’s ability to deliver on his campaign promises.
Hours before Trump promised the payments, he told reporters that he believes the war with Iran will be over “immediately” after the midterm elections, and that as a result, gas prices will go down. Trump did not offer a clear timeline as to when after the midterms it would end. I think for gasoline, we’ll get them below $2 a gallon,” the president predicted.
He claimed Iranian leaders “can’t hold out any longer,” but are trying to affect the outcome of the election so that Democrats win and “leave them alone and let them have their nuclear weapon.” Despite the economic pressures, Trump said the $5,000 payments would be possible because of the United States’ “tremendous strength and success economically.” They would cost more than $1 trillion, add significantly to the country’s nearly $1.8-trillion annual budget deficit and exacerbate concerns about inflation. Last month, the national debt topped $40 trillion for the first time. Economists balked at the proposal, questioning whether any future Congress, regardless of party control, would pass a plan that would balloon the national debt and annual deficit.
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimated it would cost $1.2 trillion, or 3.5% of the GDP, a move that “would nearly double the deficit during a time when we’re at full employment, inflation is running ahead of target, and bond yields appear to signal more inflation in the future,” said Eric Zwick, a professor of economics and finance at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. Valerie Ramey, a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford and a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research, said Trump’s policy proposal would likely lead to even higher inflation and interest rates. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) wrote on X late Wednesday.
Vance suggested it could be paid for by U.S. tariff revenues, though the suggested payment dwarfs what the U.S. has taken in through the protectionist measures. Trump has made similar promises. Last year, he promised to use tariff revenue to give middle- and low-income Americans a $2,000 dividend.
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