It's something I do before every season, and it's an agonizing process because, on paper, the best versions of most NBA offenses look great. I typically find myself worried that some team I rank in the 20s will make me look foolish simply because I underrated them in a crowded field. Well, that's pretty much exactly what actually winds up happening with the defense rankings.
Last year, I predicted that the Boston Celtics would have the No. 22 defense, and they wound up at No. 4. I had the Phoenix Suns at No. 23. Building a high-level NBA offense is typically an arduous process that involves years of talent accumulation.
Surprises tend to be more common on the defensive end. The right culture and strategy, paired with a bit of shooting luck, can bolt a team up the leaderboard fairly quickly. In an 82-game season that wears down even the deepest of teams, you can get pretty far by playing hard and plucking low-hanging fruit.
There are always some surprises at the end of the season, so let's start trying to figure out who those surprises could be. Below are my pre-season rankings of all 30 NBA defenses, a projection of how the defensive rating leaderboard will look at the end of the season. There are really only two candidates for No. 1, and the Thunder are probably the safer pick.
Their excellent defense is less tied to a single player than San Antonio's, making it easier for them to withstand injuries. They're an elite turnover-generating defense that somehow barely ever fouls (well... at least according to the whistles, don't consult social media on this matter). After drafting Aday Mara to pair with Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein, they easily have the deepest collection of rim protectors in basketball.
They allowed the fewest fast-break points per game last season because they never turn the ball over. There are questions here, but they're so minor that they hardly matter. Losing Lu Dort chipped away at their stellar wing depth and probably cost them their best options for burlier scoring forwards.
Extract — continue reading at the source.
