The Boston Red Sox are all but locked into playing on the road during (one of) the 2026 American League Wild Card Series. If that’s the case they’ll need to choose three starting pitchers among their current stable of Sonny Gray, Payton Tolle, Ranger Suarez, and Jake Bennett. Gray will almost certainly be their choice for Game 1, having put together quality starts in more than half of his appearances this season while leading the starting rotation in innings pitched (143.2), ERA (2.82), and ERA+ (145) -- while the expectation remains that he'll receive considerable support in the race for the AL Cy Young.
Tolle would then be penciled in for Game 2, with any questions about his ability to handle the full workload of a regular season being quelled after he finished with 44 strikeouts and a 3.00 ERA in August, bringing his season totals to 147 and 3.23, respectively. Suarez and Bennett are the two options for a potential Game 3. It’s safe to say the last few months have made the choice a tad more difficult, but the last few years help clear things up quite a bit.
Suarez has struggled since coming off the injured list on July 26, as he has pitched into the sixth inning just twice while giving up four or more runs in half of his starts — he just does this every single season. I’ve complied the left-handers statistics from August, September, and October of the last four seasons, and they would seem to point toward another slight dip in productivity over the remainder of the regular season before he turns it back on once playoff baseball rolls around. August2022: 2.83 ERA, 26 K, 12 BB, 28.2 IP2023: 2.45 ERA, 16 K, 7 BB, 18.1 IP2024: 5.00 ERA, 12 K, 2 BB, 9.0 IP2025: 4.10 ERA, 34 K, 3 BB, 37.1 IP September/October2022: 4.55 ERA, 23 K, 11 BB, 31.2 IP2023: 5.20 ERA, 30 K, 13 BB, 27.2 IP2024: 6.04 ERA, 17 K, 12 BB, 22.1 IP2025: 4.10 ERA, 27 K, 8 BB, 26.1 IP Postseason2022: 1.23 ERA, 13 K, 6 BB, 14.2 IP2023: 1.93 ERA, 19 K, 2 BB, 18.2 IP2024: 0.00 ERA, 8 K, 4 BB, 4.1 IP2025: 1.80 ERA, 4 K, 1 BB, 5.0 IP If that isn’t enough to get the nod in a potential series-deciding game, what is?
Bennett hasn’t exactly been the model of consistency... The Red Sox have started to manage his appearances over the last few weeks, as he was pushed back after back-to-back starts where he allowed four earned runs — doubling his season total to that point — before starting to put it back together in wins over the San Francisco Giants and New York Yankees. I’d imagine the fact that they’re paying one guy $130,000,000 and the other guy $780,000 — quite a few more zeros on one of those — will also play a role.
Boston also happens to be lined up to play that series in New York, and if the regular season series is any indication, there will almost certainly be a decisive game. Do you want the proven guy who is nails in the postseason and forces the evil empire into an unfavorable matchup? I won’t even give you the other option.
Extract — continue reading at the source.
