Republicans are spending millions and still may not win districts drawn to favor them

📲 Get the latest on the midterms & more in the NPR App Starting last year, President Trump and his political team put pressure on Republican-led states to redraw congressional district lines to favor Republicans. It was supposed to build a firewall for Republicans hoping to avoid the historical pattern of heavy midterm losses for the president's party. "It just has not turned out that way," said Nathan Gonzales, editor of Inside Elections.

Instead, Republicans are spending millions of dollars on House seats that were supposed to deliver easy wins and may end up losing them anyway. Among those districts is North Carolina's 1st Congressional District, which the state legislature aggressively redrew late last year to try to make it a reliably Republican district. Under the new lines, Trump would have won the district by more than 11 percentage points in 2024.

Now it is widely considered a toss up. Trump recently headlined a rally in eastern North Carolina where former Republican Party chairman turned U.S. Senate candidate Michael Whatley got most of the attention.

It was cold and getting late when Trump finally got around to mentioning two congressional candidates sitting in the VIP section. The two of you, we have to get them in," Trump said of Laurie Buckout, the Republican nominee in NC-01 and Jennifer Balkcom, the Republican running to represent NC-11 on the opposite side of the state. "We have to vote for them.

These are two special people. Come on up." On stage, Buckhout, a retired Army colonel, who ran and lost in the district two years ago, leaned into the partisan advantage Republicans should have in the district, saying it's "simple math." "There are more of us," said Buckhout. "All you've got to do is get out the vote.

President." But concern about turnout is exactly why Trump was in the state, begging voters to cast their ballots as if he were on it. Trump told the rally crowd that House Speaker Mike Johnson had asked him to give an extra boost to Buckhout and Balkcom, describing the situation as "tough." "He said 'if you could, give them a special call out tonight, because they're going to have close races'," Trump said. Buckhout and her team didn't respond to requests to participate in this story.