Republicans are mounting an unexpectedly competitive challenge for Minnesota’s open Senate seat, raising the possibility of an upset in a state where the party has not won a Senate election for nearly a quarter-century. Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a nonpartisan political forecasting outlet, moved the contest between Democratic Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan and Republican former broadcaster Michele Tafoya from Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic on Wednesday. In an email to Newsweek on Thursday, the forecaster's managing editor, Kyle Kondik, cited Flanagan’s “soft” polling and the “uncertainty in Minnesota this year” as reasons for the shift.
She “should probably still be fine,” he added. The forecaster’s published analysis said that the race had not attracted the heavy outside funds flowing into the principal Senate battleground, suggesting the Democrat was still favored. But the downgrade comes as Minnesota Democrats face pressure on several fronts, including disputes over social services fraud and immigration enforcement, as well as escalating political confrontations involving Governor Tim Walz and Representative Ilhan Omar.
Against that backdrop, a Senate contest Democrats might ordinarily expect to keep within their grasp looks to be potentially slipping away from them less than three weeks before Election Day. While several Senate contests have shifted toward Democrats, Minnesota was the only Democratic-held seat among the five races adjusted by the Crystal Ball this week to move toward Republicans. The tightening race came into sharper focus Friday as Flanagan and Tafoya faced off in what is likely to be their only one-on-one battle before Election Day.
The hourlong MPR News debate featured sharp exchanges over fraud, immigration, affordability and the candidates' relationships with President Donald Trump and Walz. Tafoya repeatedly sought to tie Flanagan to the Walz administration's record, while Flanagan argued that her opponent would be a “rubber stamp” for Trump despite Tafoya's efforts to portray herself as an independent voice. Flanagan’s team remained confident despite the ratings change and tight public polling, according to a person associated with the campaign.
Absolutely,” the person told Newsweek. The person pointed to Flanagan’s primary performance as evidence of enthusiasm. Official results show she received 411,853 votes, more than all nine Republican Senate candidates combined.
The person would not say whether the campaign’s internal polling matched the public surveys. Newsweek emailed the Tafoya campaign for comment. A KSTP/SurveyUSA poll released Wednesday placed Flanagan 3 points ahead, with 45 percent to Tafoya’s 42 percent.
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