Election forecaster Sabato’s Crystal Ball has shifted numerous U.S. Senate races in favor of Democrats on Wednesday, including Republican incumbent Senator Roger Marshall's seat in Kansas versus Democrat Adam Hamilton. The forecaster has moved the race from Leans Republican to a Toss-Up.
Marshall, a doctor, is currently in the seat that has been held by the GOP since 1919, the longest ever for any party. In a post on Truth Social discussing a potential rally for Marshall in the near future, President Donald Trump called him one of his "favorite Senators." Midterm elections are commonly viewed as a test of the political environment facing the party in power, and the president's party has historically lost seats during them. Republicans now hold a narrow majority in both the House and Senate.
Trump carried Kansas by double digits over then-Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 election, underscoring the state’s Republican tilt. But Democrats have maintained a foothold in the state, with Laura Kelly in the governor’s mansion even as Republicans hold both U.S. Hamilton campaign spokesperson Glynnis Harvey told Newsweek when asked about the new shift from Sabato’s Crystal Ball, "Roger Marshall abandoned Kansas.
Instead of fighting for Kansas farmers, aviation workers, and families, he’s been a yes-man to corruption in Washington, supporting policies that are driving up costs and cutting healthcare. Republicans, Democrats, and Independents across Kansas are connecting with Adam’s message of leading from the middle to lower costs and solve our nation’s biggest problems. Kansans are ready for change.” Newsweek reached out to Marshall's campaign via email on Wednesday for comment.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball said they were initially hesitant to move the race into the Toss-Up category, "but a full-on Republican rescue operation appears underway for Marshall," which helped in part move the needle, the forecaster said. The election forecaster also pointed to the Senate Leadership Fund investing heavily in the race, citing Punchbowl News. "We noted last week that, for the first time all cycle, Republicans now needed to win more Toss-ups than Democrats did in order to win the Senate, and the Kansas move—a GOP-held state—now means Republicans need 4 of the 5 Toss-ups to hold the Senate, while Democrats still just need two," the forecaster said in part.
Senate races that shifted in the new update, besides Kansas, are Nebraska from Likely Republican to Leans Republican, New Hampshire from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic, Minnesota from Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic and Mississippi from Safe Republican to Likely Republican. The Cook Political Report currently has the race rated as a Toss-Up as well, adding to the potentially troubling signs for Republicans surrounding the contest. Craig Agranoff, political professor at Florida Atlantic University, told Newsweek on Wednesday, "Moving Kansas from Lean Republican to Toss-up is a real warning for Republicans, not a full red alert.
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