MADRID — Spain’s election this month risks pushing the explosive issue of Catalan independence right back up the political agenda. Nearly a decade after a separatist drive in Catalonia plunged Spain into a constitutional crisis in 2017–2018, the topic now lies dormant, barely making the headlines. But that could change quickly if the conservative People’s Party (PP) and the far-right Vox take power in the vote on Nov. 29, as polls predict.
Their staunch brand of unionism could well inflame feelings across the region of 8 million people. Catalonia is Spain’s second-biggest autonomous region after Andalusia, representing about 19% of the national economy and 16.5% of the population. Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez took office shortly after a failed independence drive in 2017 saw several nationalist politicians flee abroad and nine others jailed.
In contrast to the PP’s uncompromising approach to Catalonia, Sánchez negotiated with pro-independence parties, making concessions in exchange for their parliamentary support. An amnesty benefiting Catalans involved in the secession attempt angered the Spanish right but helped calm the political atmosphere in the region, eliminating a major nationalist grievance. Meanwhile, the cross-party unity between separatists that was so instrumental in driving the independence movement a decade ago has dissolved.
Although 43% of Catalans remain in favor of independence, according to the regional government’s statistics institute, the topic has fallen off their list of priorities, behind housing, immigration and crime. Carles Puigdemont, the former Catalan president who led the 2017 secession bid, recently admitted that “nine years on, the independence movement is fragmented and weakened.” Speaking to Catalan news outlet El Punt Avui from Waterloo, Belgium, the separatist said: “What I want is to stop being Spanish. I don’t say this as an act of rejection or contempt.
I often compare it to someone who feels like a woman trapped in a man’s body,” adding that he should be able to “cancel” Spanish nationality like any other subscription. The big question now is to what degree hostility from the PP and Vox could rebuild the movement. PP leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo, citing Sánchez’s willingness to engage with Catalan nationalists, accused him of leading a government that “has begun a process of separation with and deconstruction of the constitutional system of 1978.” Vox rose to prominence on the back of its fierce opposition to Catalan separatism.
It has called for pro-independence parties to be made illegal and advocates the dismantling of Spain’s decentralized political structure, which it claims is wasteful and encourages regional nationalism. In an interview with Barcelona-based newspaper La Vanguardia, Feijóo insisted that the region had nothing to fear from him. He also complained, on the region’s behalf, that budgeted public works were not being carried out there, echoing a longstanding grievance among Catalan nationalists.
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