This article has been reviewed according to Science X's editorial process and policies. Editors have highlighted the following attributes while ensuring the content's credibility: Rising sea levels and storm surges could cost $855 billion in economic losses across Australia by the end of the century, according to new research, the first of its kind in Australia. Published in Nature Scientific Reports, the study was conducted by researchers at the University of Melbourne and Australian National University.
The researchers estimate coastal flooding could affect almost 270,000 properties and 2 million hectares (4.9 million acres) of land across Australia by 2100 under a moderate emissions scenario, including residential homes, farms, critical infrastructure and environmental assets. This new research uses a future scenario developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) called SSP2-4.5, which is an intermediate greenhouse gas and global response scenario leading to around 2.7°C of average global warming above preindustrial levels by 2100. This is seen as broadly consistent with a continuation of current climate policies, but well above the 1.5°C safe climate change level agreed to in the Paris Agreement.
The research also estimates damages from sea level rise and storm surge for a very high emissions scenario. The study, led by University of Melbourne Professor Tom Kompas, underpins the Climate Council's new Rising Seas Rising Bills report, also co-authored by Kompas. Researchers first mapped areas likely to be flooded using sea-level projections, storm-surge estimates and Australia's elevation data, then identified the properties and land within those areas and estimated their value, drawing from a host of data sources and empirical measures.
They then used statistical modeling to estimate how severely those assets could be damaged over time, and the resulting physical damage was translated into economic losses. The research estimates every state and the Northern Territory will bear significant economic costs from rising sea levels, ranging from $230.5 billion in Western Australia to $7.9 billion in Tasmania. Projected losses for Queensland are $214.5 billion, followed by Victoria ($167 billion), New South Wales ($151 billion), South Australia ($49.2 billion) and the Northern Territory ($35.2 billion).
The research found Queensland has the greatest number of properties at risk (93,157), followed by New South Wales (71,210) and Western Australia (51,366). The findings also revealed the Gold Coast alone faces $84.4 billion in projected economic losses—the single most exposed urban area in Australia. The modeling uses a middle-of-the-road emissions scenario, holds storm intensity constant and excludes losses from erosion.
The possibility of rapid collapse of ice sheets in Greenland and West Antarctica—and up to 2 m (6.6 feet) of sea level rise by the end of the century—is not reflected in the economic losses. Kompas said, "Sea level rise may physically affect a large number of Australians who live near the coast, as the majority of Australians live within 50 kilometers (31 miles) of the coastline. Discover the latest in science, tech, and space with over 100,000 subscribers who rely on Phys.org for daily insights. d research that matter—daily or weekly.
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