Speculation is growing that Russia will seek a prisoner exchange following the recent detention of a Japanese journalist for alleged spying in Sakhalin in the Russian Far East. Some believe that the detention of the Hokkaido Shimbun reporter is linked to the handover to Germany this month of a Russian hacker detained in Japan in May. Germany had asked Japan to detain the Russian hacker, a key member of the international hacking group Qilin, which has repeatedly carried out cyberattacks around the world, including ones targeting Japanese companies and hospitals.
On Tuesday, a Russian independent media outlet reported that the Japanese journalist was detained after Japan announced the hacker’s extradition, suspecting that the detention was a retaliatory action. While invading Ukraine, Russia has carried out a prisoner swap with the West involving a detained U.S. newspaper reporter. In light of this case, the independent media outlet noted that foreign nationals in Russia could be used as bargaining chips in swaps with Russians held abroad.
According to a U.S. government-affiliated broadcaster, a Japan expert based in Britain said that the Japanese journalist is expected to be freed in a prisoner exchange, adding that Russia would likely seek the release of hackers in return. Russian authorities and hackers are believed to have cooperated in past cyberattacks against the United States. Earlier this month, a military blogger close to the Russian Defense Ministry was briefly detained in Montenegro, which is seeking to join the European Union.
In a social media post, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said that Russia would need to capture more Western nationals to secure the return of detained Russian nationals through prisoner swaps. In 2024, authorities in Belarus, an ally of Russia, detained a Japanese national who was a Japanese-language teacher on suspicion of espionage. Belarusian state television reported that Japanese intelligence activities had been thwarted, and also aired a documentary program about the Japanese teacher’s detention.
This closely mirrored Russia’s release of footage apparently intended to portray the Japanese journalist as a spy. In 2025, the Japanese teacher detained in Belarus was released after being sentenced. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko reportedly said that he decided to pardon the Japanese citizen at the request of U.S.
President Donald Trump in connection with the lifting of sanctions on Belarus. The U.S. broadcaster quoted an expert as saying that, through the detention of the Japanese journalist, Russia apparently aims to gain diplomatic leverage over Japan and could urge Japan to make concessions to avoid a prolonged detention. The broadcaster also reported that Russia may be seeking to have Japanese sanctions on Russia lifted.
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