Russians are going to the polls to elect a new State Duma in a tightly controlled vote stripped of meaningful competition and with little doubt about the result. Vladimir Putin’s United Russia is expected to extend the grip on parliament it has held for 23 years, alongside a handful of nominal opposition parties that reliably vote with the Kremlin on the issues that matter. The three-day vote begins on Friday, with results expected after polls close on Sunday.
For all the predictability of the outcome, the first Duma election since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 is taking place against the backdrop of a war that, once distant for many Russians, is increasingly intruding into everyday life. Swarms of Ukrainian drones have struck oil refineries, factories and logistics hubs across Russia over the summer, while polling has pointed to growing anxiety about the course of the fighting and what may still lie ahead. Against that backdrop, the Kremlin has tightened its grip further.
Last month, the authorities barred Yabloko, the liberal anti-war party, from the ballot, removing the only political force remaining in Russia that was openly challenging the invasion of Ukraine. That leaves a handful of other parties, from the Communists to the far-right Liberal Democrats, which together form what is known in Russia as the “systemic opposition”: groups permitted to criticise the authorities at the margins, but which fall into line with United Russia on issues that matter to the Kremlin. For years, they have served as a political safety valve, giving voters somewhere to register discontent without posing a serious threat to the ruling party’s dominance.
But even by the diminished standards of Russian politics, these parliamentary campaigns have been strikingly lifeless. In Russia this year, many are doing the opposite,” said Farida Rustamova, a political analyst and founder of the independent Vlast newsletter. Televised debates have at times taken place in half-empty studios because politicians failed to turn up, producing awkward clips that quickly became memes online.
United Russia’s campaign videos have leaned heavily on low-budget AI, with few memorable slogans or promises. None of the parties has dared to address the growing questions surrounding the continuing war that increasingly dominate private conversations. They don’t want to discuss difficult issues and just [want to] get it over with,” said a person close to the Kremlin, speaking on condition of anonymity.
By keeping the election subdued, Moscow hoped to depress turnout among disaffected and independent-minded voters while ensuring its own supporters made it to the polls, said Rustamova. Yabloko’s exclusion followed the same logic. Several observers believe that officials had initially expected the party to receive a negligible result, demonstrating how little support remained for an explicitly anti-war platform.
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