Saudi Arabia's oil supply crisis is rapidly becoming Europe's problem. The September 10 attacks on Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline struck the system at multiple locations and damaged at least one pumping station, forcing Riyadh to shut down the Kingdom's critical alternative to the Strait of Hormuz. The 1,200-kilometer Petroline can carry around 7 million barrels per day from Saudi Arabia's eastern producing regions to Yanbu on the Red Sea.
Since the war effectively closed Hormuz, it has become one of the most important pieces of energy infrastructure in the world. Kpler estimates the pipeline had been moving roughly 4 million bpd around Hormuz before the attack. A prolonged outage could ultimately threaten 3.5–4 million bpd of Saudi crude exports.
The figure is below Petroline's nameplate capacity because Saudi Arabia can still export some crude from eastern terminals such as Ras Tanura, despite the severe constraints on Gulf shipping. Kpler estimates crude inventories at Yanbu have fallen below 15 million barrels, down from almost 21 million barrels in July and near their lowest levels since 2018. At an export rate of 3.5 million bpd, that represents little more than four days of theoretical supply.
Aramco can also draw on its global storage network, but sustained exports from the Red Sea ultimately require fresh crude to reach Yanbu. The bigger danger, however, is where the conflict goes next. Saudi Arabia says the drones that attacked Petroline originated from Iraq, raising the possibility of retaliation against Iran-aligned Iraqi militias.
Meanwhile, another front is rapidly developing in Yemen. Related: Russia Extends Diesel Export Ban Through October After sweeping gains along Yemen's Red Sea coast and capturing Mokha, Houthi forces are reportedly building up troops and equipment around Marib, raising fears of another major offensive. Marib is particularly important because it remains one of the internationally recognized Yemeni government's principal strongholds and contains major oil and gas fields, military bases and an important power station.
Aden does not appear to be the obvious immediate objective. Capturing and holding southern Yemen would be considerably more difficult. Marib and Bab el-Mandeb offer greater strategic leverage: Marib threatens the remaining northern power base and energy assets of the Saudi-backed government, while control around Bab el-Mandeb increases Houthi influence over one of the world's most important maritime chokepoints.
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