Florida's plans to cut vaccine mandates in schools could trigger the country's largest measles outbreak in 50 years, a new study has found. Researchers at the University of Maryland used a mathematical model to determine the impact of Florida dropping the measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine from child immunization mandates. The results indicated that the move could trigger the largest measles epidemic in the U.S. in nearly half a century, with projected pediatric deaths numbering in the hundreds within five years.
The study was published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences on September 28. Last year, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis vowed to end all vaccine mandates in the state—which would make it the first state to do so—and last month, a proposal, signed by Florida Surgeon General Joseph Ladapo, suggested that students entering pre K-12 classes would no longer have to be vaccinated against Hepatitis B, varicella (chicken pox), Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib), and pneumococcal conjugate. The MMR vaccine was not included, and is still currently required by state law.
The state's rate of vaccine exemptions for kindergartners is already higher than the national average, and MMR vaccine coverage is lower than the country's average as well, according to data provided by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Despite measles being considered eradicated in 2000, this year America has experienced its highest caseload of measles in over three decades (with over 2,000 cases recorded so far this year). Over 100 of those cases have been recorded in Florida.
Researchers at the University of Maryland built a model based on a 2025 measles outbreak in Gaines County, Texas, and incorporated Florida-specific demographic structure, MMR vaccination coverage data, and realistic mixing patterns across ages and geographies. The model showed that simulated declines in MMR vaccination coverage following removal of school-entry requirements, alongside Florida’s already low vaccine-induced herd immunity threshold, increased large-outbreak potential with pediatric deaths in numbers not seen since pre-vaccine eras. The findings indicated that even small reductions in child vaccination rates could lead to "disproportionately large increases in the scale of outbreaks," the paper’s first author, Alice Oveson, a Ph.D. student in applied mathematics and statistics, and scientific computation at the University of Maryland said.
The team also said that ending the MMR vaccine mandate would not only make measles endemic in Florida, but it could also reignite transmission across the U.S. "The results of the study confirm what we already know," Dr. Jon Andrus, a professor of global health at George Washington University, told Newsweek.
"Removing school entry MMR vaccination requirements would be disastrous to the health and well-being of the children of Florida, and potentially spearhead an even larger outbreak across the country." Dr. Paul Offit, director of the Vaccine Education Center and an attending physician in the Division of Infectious Diseases at Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, told Newsweek that school vaccine mandates are "important" because the measles virus—the "most contagious human infection"—is often transmitted more easily in schools. This means that by reducing the spread of measles in schools, it could reduce the spread in a community as a whole.
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