SoFi (SOFI) is having a dismal run in 2026, with shares down over 30% for the year. SOFI stock seems to be taking a breather after three years of outperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index ($SPX). Meanwhile, the stock's price action seems at odds with its recent financial performance, as earnings have been strong with CEO Anthony Noto describing Q2 as "nothing short of an exceptional quarter." The markets, however, don't seem to be buying into the management's optimism as reflected in the stock price.
While I booked profits in SOFI stock last year as it moved past $30, I have since bought the dip in this fintech name. However, the stock has been getting cold feet near $20 and has failed to break above that level decisively for over six months. Let's examine the disconnect between SOFI's price movement and earnings and analyze what it would take to move the stock.
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Subscribe now for quick, incisive midday market analysis you won't find anywhere else. While any company's management usually has the propensity to overuse adjectives like "exceptional," Noto wasn't exaggerating. The company added 1.1 million new members in Q2, marking the third consecutive quarter when it added over a million members.
Its cross-sell rate also improved in the quarter, with the number of products rising twice as much as the new members. Moreover, over half of the new products were opened by existing members, which is quite encouraging. Its loan originations also rose to a record high of $14.8 billion.
The company's SoFi Plus subscription is also gaining traction, and it crossed 200,000 subscribers in the quarter, implying annualized revenues of $24 million. The management is hopeful about that number hitting 1 million in a year, which would mean an annualized recurring revenue run rate of $120 million. The strong growth in members and cross-sell flows down to SoFi's earnings, and its adjusted revenues rose 40% year-over-year in Q2, while adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) rose 44% to a record $358 million.
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