Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) completed its long-awaited initial public offering (IPO) in June. SpaceX stock opened on the Nasdaq at $150, delivering an immediate 11% lift from the offering price of $135. The company ultimately raised about $85.7 billion, far above the previous record set by Saudi Aramco.
In the days that followed, shares of SpaceX continued climbing -- closing the first session near $161 and briefly touching an intraday high of more than $225 shortly thereafter. The initial enthusiasm, however, was fleeting. Subsequent trading sessions came with selling pressure as early momentum faded and valuation questions mounted.
This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia.
Continue » As of this writing (Aug. 17), SpaceX stock has rebounded to its first-day trading range of about $150. This trajectory underscores a familiar pattern among high-profile IPOs: An opening-day pop driven by scarcity and narrative, followed by a period of price consolidation in which reality and expectations start to align. During the past 15 years or so, there have been a number of major technology IPOs that show a consistent pattern of significant drawdowns during the first year as a public company.
Across a cohort of roughly 30 companies, the median maximum share price decline within the first 12 months of being public was 54%. Facebook (now Meta Platforms) experienced a peak-to-trough decline of 54% in its first year as a public company. Uber fell as much as 68%.
Airbnb held up better on a relative basis, yet still retreated 39% at its worst point. Even eventual long-term winners such as Shopify and Snowflake endured declines in the mid-50% range before recovering. These figures are not outliers.
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