El Niño is developing right now across the Pacific Ocean - thousands of miles away from the UK. Its most profound impacts may well be centred around this area, with the increased risk of flooding and landslides in Peru and Ecuador and the threat of droughts and wildfires in Australia. However the disruption caused to global wind patterns means the impacts will ripple right across the globe.
And the Met Office says the UK weather is likely to be affected, with the growing chance that autumn and early winter will be wet and stormy. No two El Niños are the same - so, while it may increase the chance of certain types of weather occurring, this is not guaranteed. "I have not seen an event like this developing in our forecasts before", said Professor Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasts at the Met Office.
He says the scale of the growing El Niño is unprecedented in modern climate records. As it approaches its peak by the end of 2026, its influence around the world will grow with effects spreading across the globe. Professor Scaife says forecasters "already see signals for increased rainfall and storminess in autumn here in the UK", especially into November and December.
After a summer that looks set to be the UK's hottest on record and with the drought conditions that continue to grip large swathes of the country, a wet autumn sounds like good news. However, we know that climate change is making increasingly intense rainfall more likely, and so these storms and downpours will also bring the threat of flooding. Strong winds could also cause damage, transport disruption and power cuts.
The winter of 2015 and 2016, which coincided with a very strong El Niño, brought a succession of major storms delivering what experts at the time described as the most extreme flooding on record. El Niño can be associated with cold spells in the late winter - but the link is not a strong one and the past evidence is mixed. The so-called Big Freeze of winter 2009/2010 was, at the time, the coldest in three decades - and this coincided with an El Niño.
However, 2006/2007 was also an El Niño winter and that was unseasonably warm. The further forecasters look into the future the more uncertain the prospects become. So while El Niño may increase the chance of cold weather early in 2027, this is not guaranteed.
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