This article has been reviewed according to Science X's editorial process and policies. Editors have highlighted the following attributes while ensuring the content's credibility: A new study from the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E) at Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego finds that improved weather and water forecasts could help California gain more value from existing reservoirs and help meet a new water supply target. The study, led by Scripps economist Tom Corringham and staff researcher Denali Pinto, estimates that a reservoir operation system co-led by Scripps, state, federal and local water authorities could save the state between $100 million and $200 million per year in the form of added water available to meet agricultural, urban and household needs.
Corringham said ripple effects from recreation, power generation, enriched fishery stocks and improved flood risk management make that a conservative estimate. "California's water challenge will require many different solutions," said Corringham. "Our research shows that smarter operation of existing reservoirs could make a meaningful contribution." More precise reservoir management could yield an extra 100–160 billion gallons a year, enough for more than a million households.
That benefit, however, only gets the state partway to a new supply goal announced this summer. California has the most variable climate in the United States, with its entire annual water supply sometimes coming from two or three major winter storms. In anticipation of potentially greater vulnerability in the future, the California State Legislature directed the California Department of Water Resources to modernize the California Water Plan and set a water-supply planning target for the first time in state history.
California will seek to identify 9 million acre-feet (2.9 trillion gallons) of additional water supply by 2040. The study appears in the journal Environmental Research: Water. The 12-year-old Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO) program is led by CW3E in collaboration with the U.S.
Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), California Department of Water Resources and local water agencies. FIRO uses improved observations and forecasts of atmospheric rivers, precipitation and reservoir inflows to give reservoir operators greater flexibility in storing and releasing water. When forecasts show that a major storm is approaching, operators can release water in advance to create space for the expected inflow.
When forecasts indicate low flood risk, they may be able to retain more water than would be permitted under traditional fixed, calendar-based operating rules. The goal of the FIRO program is to improve water availability and water-supply reliability without increasing flood risk. The researchers estimate that FIRO could increase water storage by approximately 315,000 acre-feet, or more than 100 billion gallons, per year across 20 of California's largest reservoirs.
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