Joseph Kabila was a commander in the rebel alliance that brought his father to power in the Democratic Republic of Congo in 1997, went on to succeed him as president and now, at the age of 55, he is a rebel leader once again. In an even stranger twist, the man he has sworn to topple is the very man he handed power to after 18 years at the helm, and with whom he had formed a coalition government after stepping down. While one of the rebel groups he had fought against as president is part of his new alliance.
His career reflects the ever-shifting nature of politics in DR Congo, where alliances are ephemeral, with the use of force a constant threat. When Kabila was named leader of the Front for the Refoundation of the Nation (FRN), earlier this month, it confirmed what many Congolese had long believed – that the former president was working with the M23 rebels, who last year seized much of eastern DR Congo, including the region's main cities of Goma and Bukavu. Nevertheless, the confirmation sent shockwaves through DR Congo – a vast country two-thirds the size of western Europe, with huge deposits of gold, diamonds and even more importantly minerals used to make everything from the mobile phones to batteries for electric vehicles.
For Kabila, the alliance offers a possible route back to the power he had lost. For the M23 rebels, his involvement brings the experience and networks of a former head of state to a movement whose military advances have yet to translate into broad national legitimacy. But it is far from certain that they can achieve their stated goal of ousting President Félix Tshisekedi.
Policy analyst Henry-Pacifique Mayala told the BBC that Kabila had been left with few options for regaining political influence. "He actually was left with no other choice," he said. Facing a death sentence after being convicted in absentia of treason, as well as US sanctions over his alleged support for the M23, Kabila may have sought assurances that the partnership could serve his interests, Mayala suggested.
"I'm not sure that he is making this huge leap in the dark without having received considerable assurance," Mayala said, adding that the M23's military strength could give Kabila greater leverage in any future negotiations with the Congolese government. Kabila's involvement also raises questions about whether the conflict could spread beyond the east. The M23's territorial gains have been concentrated in the country's eastern provinces, some 1,500km (1,000 miles) from the capital, Kinshasa.
Kabila's political networks could give the rebellion a broader reach, but that does not necessarily mean it has the capacity to extend its military campaign across the country. And it is not clear how far Kabila's national reach extends. While he was in power, after being named following the mysterious assassination of his father Laurent in 2001, he was often seen as something of an outsider in Kinshasa.
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