The developing super El Niño has already broken records for its strength, and it will only get stronger in the coming months, meaning that some major U.S. winter events could be impacted by the climate pattern. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced that El Niño had developed in the tropical Pacific in June. Ever since, the climate pattern has been strengthening and has already broken the record for the highest ocean anomaly in more than 170 years.
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle. It occurs on average once every three to five years and forms when equatorial Pacific temperatures are .5 degrees Celsius above average for several months in a row. A NOAA spokesperson previously told Newsweek that El Niño is expected to continue strengthening through November and December.
Even after it begins to weaken, impacts are expected across the U.S., with the strongest impacts most typically affecting the U.S. between December and March, the spokesperson said. This period encompasses a time with major events such as the Super Bowl, Mardi Gras, holiday events like the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade and the Rockefeller Center Christmas Tree Lighting—both in New York City—and more. Many independent meteorologists and other weather agencies have been referring to the current event as a super El Niño.
Although the NOAA refers to the climate pattern as “very strong,” both labels refer to an event in which waters are warmer than average, usually by around 2 degrees Celsius. The current El Niño has already surged past that number. The current El Niño is over 3 degrees Celsius above average and still climbing.
"Advanced monitoring and an improved understanding of El Niño patterns allow the NWS to better predict and better prepare the public and our core partners for what is to come.” The warmer the waters, the greater the influence on weather. El Niño can influence weather around the globe. In the U.S., it causes the most widespread impacts during the fall and winter months, when cooler, wetter conditions are experienced across the South, with warmer, drier conditions in the North.
It can also influence the storm track, whether precipitation falls as snow or rain, and extreme cold spells. One of the areas forecasters are monitoring as El Niño develops this winter is Southern California and the broader Southwest U.S. region. Strong El Niño patterns can alter storm tracks and bring more atmospheric rivers and heavy rainstorms to Southern California in the winter months.
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